Israel-Iran Relations

Why in the News?

Recently, Israel launched an attack in the central province of Isfahan in response to the direct attack of Iran with more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel. As Israel and Palestine are already engaged in war, this new outbreak of war has created major turbulence in the Middle East part of the world. In this blog, we will understand the historical background of Israel and Iran relations, the reasons behind this war outbreak, and how it will impact other countries, including India. 

Introduction

Israel is known for its response to war and we have witnessed it multiple times in the past also. Be it their Operation Focus which involved bombing Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi airfields, or covert Operation Wrath of God aimed at assassinations of accused individuals involved in the 1972 Munich massacre, Israel has gone completely unhinged in its’ aggressive stance at opposing nations. In recent years, we have witnessed a growth in the number of attacks and skirmishes between Israel and various terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi groups over territorial disputes. This has led to a vast increase in the death rates and number of refugees in these areas. Recently in October month of last year, Hamas attacked Israel by launching more than 5000 missiles in a single night, the majority of which were negated by the Iron Dome of Israel. In response to this attack, Israel declared a full-fledged war on Palestine which has still been going on. Amid this scenario, Iran stated an alleged attack on its consulate in Syria by Israel which killed several Iranian people, including their military commanders, and in response, launched a missile attack on Israel. This was the 1st instance of Iran directly attacking Israel from its domestic territory. 

Historical Background

Since its inception as Israel state in 1948, it has been engaged in war with neighboring countries multiple times, including the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the Suez Crisis of 1956, the Six-Day War of 1967, the War of Attrition between 1967-70, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 1982 Lebanon War, 2014 Gaza War, and 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis. The participant nations in these wars against Israel were Egypt, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Morocco, Kuwait, and Palestine (PLO and Hamas). 

However, Iran has not been involved in a continuous state of war with Israel. Instead, the bilateral relations between these two nations have undergone various phases, including friendly relations as Iran was the 2nd Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel as a sovereign state after Turkey. The Iran-Israel bilateral relationship can be divided into 4 phases that are described below. 

Ambivalent Period (1947 to 1953)

In 1947, Iran was among the 13 countries that voted against the United Nations Partition Plan for the British Mandate of Palestine and was a member of the Special Committee on Palestine charged to investigate the cause of the conflict and derive a solution in Palestine Mandate. After two years in 1949, Iran also voted against Israel's admission to the United Nations. As the committee presented a Partition Plan for Palestine, Iran opposed this plan stating that it would result in more violence in the region and that peace could only be established through a single federal state. 

Friendly Period (1953 to 1979)

After the establishment of the Israel state, Iran under the rule of the Pahlavi Dynasty and Israel tried to maintain close ties with each other as Israel saw Iran as a non-Arab power amid its tense relationships with other Arab countries. This resulted in Iran’s recognition of Israel as a sovereign state, being the 2nd Muslim-majority country accepting Israel status. Iran also supported Israel during the Six-day War period in 1967 by supplying Israel with a significant portion of its oil needs.

Worsening Period (1979 to 1990)

During the 1979 Iranian Revolution which resulted in the fall of the Pahlavi dynasty and improved relations of Iran with other Arab countries following the death of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Iran under the Khomeini rule adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance and cut off all official relations with Israel by declaring Israel as “Small Satan” and the United States as “Great Satan”.

Open Hostility (1991 - Present)

Since 1979, the bilateral relations between Israel and Iran have worsened significantly. Both nations have engaged in proxy wars multiple times as Iran has provided financial and logistics support to terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi against Israel, and Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and attacked Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Facility through the Stuxnet virus. 

Timeline of Recent War Outbreak

October 2023

• Hamas launched a missile attack on Israel and in response, Israel conducted multiple airstrikes on the Gaza Strip. 

• A state of war was declared between both parties. 

November 2023 

• The Roofah border crossing was reopened between Gaza and Egypt as the limited evacuation point for those seeking refuge. 

• Israel conducted multiple attacks on medical facilities in Gaza claiming Hamas operations in those facilities. Hamas denied these claims. 

• Houthi group was involved in the war by landing their helicopter on Galaxy Leader Cargo, which led to supply chain crises across the world.

• In the last week of the month, Both Israel and Palestine agreed to a ceasefire which resumed in the next month.

December 2023

• Israel's ground offenses in Gaza intensified at a rapid pace increased from deaths and refugees. 

• India advocated for an early and durable resolution between these two nations.

January 2024

• UNSC proposed a “Two-State Solution” as the only option for resolving Middle-East conflicts.

• Red Sea Crises continued to escalate.

April 2024

• Iran launched a missile attack on Israel.

• This marked 1st instance when Iran directly attacked Israel from its domestic territory.

• Israel responded with a retaliatory strike after weeks of escalating tensions between the two countries.

Impacts of Conflict

Rise in Oil Prices

A significant increase in oil prices across the world can be expected if Iran decides to fully or partially block the Strait of Hormuz which serves as the primary route for the export of crude oil from Arab countries. This can result in oil prices reaching up to $150 per barrel which has stagnated at $90 per barrel since the start of the conflict.

Supply Chain Disruption

The Israel-Iran conflict is affecting international trade as the recent decrease in airspace and sea operations has disrupted the movement of goods and services in this region, resulting in a ripple effect on supply chains.

Higher Inflation

The rise in global oil prices and supply chain disruptions will ultimately lead to higher inflation rates with significant spikes in crude oil and LNG prices. This will lead to share market crashes, increased product costs, and higher inflation rates in many countries, including India.

Impact on Iran nuclear deal

Also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), The Iran nuclear agreement is related to Iran dismantling its nuclear program in exchange for multi-million dollar relief on sanctions imposed on Iran by several world powers. This newly emerged conflict can negatively impact this agreement by Iran refusing to follow these agreements.

Global Political Alignment

2024 is the election year for many prominent nations, including the United States and India. At this time, a major conflict in the Middle East region will greatly influence world geopolitics and severely impact the international relations of these countries. 

The Threat of the Spread of Conflict

The Middle East region has undergone a state of turbulence for many years and a full-scale war between Israel and Iran holding significant positions in the Gulf may influence neighboring countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to participate in this conflict, which will increase the scale of devastation and number of death rates in this region.

India’s Stance on the Issue

India maintains a cordial bilateral relationship with both the countries involved in this conflict i.e., Iran and Israel. 

• Iran is India’s 2nd biggest crude oil supplier, supplying more than 425,000 barrels per day to India. Iran also holds a strategic geographical significance for India as India is developing the Chahbahar port in Iran which will improve the trade ties for both nations and will act as a counter to the growing influence of China in the Indian Ocean through its Gwadar port.

• India and Israel share a comprehensive economic, military, and political relationship as Israel has provided military support to India on numerous occasions. Israel is also India's second-largest supplier of military equipment after Russia and India is Israel's third-largest Asian trade partner. India provided support to Israel’s recognition of a nation by establishing an embassy in Tel Aviv in 1992.

India favoring any one nation among these two will result in the deterioration of bilateral relations with the other. That’s why, India is urging for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and calling for the path of diplomacy to solve the issue. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has issued a statement expressing concern at the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran which threatens the peace and security in the region and calling for immediate de-escalation, exercise of restraint, stepping back from violence, and return to the path of diplomacy for maintaining security and stability in the region.